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Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis
https://www.calcudoku.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1177		 Page 4 of 10
Author:  rafaelhoukes  [ Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis
No worries, I'm currently not trying to recruit people to become calcudoku junks :-) !
We should also hope paulv66 is not setting up a DDOS system himself, as he will win the prize at every moment between 6/02 (6:00) and 19/02 (15:00) [biggrin].
Author:  paulv66  [ Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis
rafaelhoukes wrote:
No worries, I'm currently not trying to recruit people to become calcudoku junks :-) !
We should also hope paulv66 is not setting up a DDOS system himself, as he will win the prize at every moment between 6/02 (6:00) and 19/02 (15:00) [biggrin].


Darn it! I didn't think anyone would realise that it was me! :-)
Author:  paulv66  [ Mon Nov 11, 2019 2:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis
I've worked out the cut off times for each person being closest to the correct time.

rafaelhoukes 31/01/2020 13:31:13 31/01/2020 19:16:41
sjs34 01/02/2020 01:02:10 01/02/2020 13:32:15
jpoos 02/02/2020 02:02:20 02/02/2020 13:31:10
clm 03/02/2020 01:00:00 03/02/2020 14:32:20
beaker 04/02/2020 04:04:40 04/02/2020 04:22:21
mikas 04/02/2020 04:40:02 04/02/2020 16:52:33
eclipsegirl 05/02/2020 05:05:05 05/02/2020 15:41:51
skeeter84 06/02/2020 02:18:37 06/02/2020 07:26:46
paulv66 06/02/2020 12:34:56 20/02/2020 04:06:26
mukund 04/03/2020 19:37:55
Author:  beaker  [ Mon Nov 11, 2019 7:15 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis
It would appear that I have the smallest "window" of about 18 minutes [sad]
Author:  sjs34  [ Mon Nov 11, 2019 11:54 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis
beaker, 18 minutes between you and mikas but what about the time between clm and you?
Author:  paulv66  [ Tue Nov 12, 2019 12:08 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis
I've extended the table to include the length of each person's "window". Those for rafaelhoulkes and mukund are (in a way) unlimited - rafaelhoulkes wins if 20 million is reached before 19:16:41 on 3rd January and mukund wins if it's not reached until after 04:06:26 on 20th February.

Name Guess Latest time Window
rafaelhoukes 31/01/2020 13:31:13 31/01/2020 19:16:41
sjs34 01/02/2020 01:02:10 01/02/2020 13:32:15 00:18:15:34
jpoos 02/02/2020 02:02:20 02/02/2020 13:31:10 00:23:58:55
clm 03/02/2020 01:00:00 03/02/2020 14:32:20 01:01:01:10
beaker 04/02/2020 04:04:40 04/02/2020 04:22:21 00:13:50:01
mikas 04/02/2020 04:40:02 04/02/2020 16:52:33 00:12:30:12
eclipsegirl 05/02/2020 05:05:05 05/02/2020 15:41:51 00:22:49:17
skeeter84 06/02/2020 02:18:37 06/02/2020 07:26:46 00:15:44:55
paulv66 06/02/2020 12:34:56 20/02/2020 04:06:26 13:20:39:39
mukund 04/03/2020 19:37:55
Author:  paulv66  [ Mon Nov 18, 2019 1:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis
paulv66 wrote:
I've done a straight linear extrapolation based on skeeter84's starting point and the number of solved puzzles at 16:42 CET today. The projected answer is 4th February at 07:49:27.

That's pretty close to the times guessed by beaker and mikas. My later guess of February 6th is based on the assumption that there will be a fall off in the number of people doing puzzles over the Christmas period.


I decided to have another look at how things are progressing towards the 20 million mark. It's probably better to do this at midnight CET as I think the number of puzzles solved during each day is weighted towards the first half of the day.

At midnight last night, the projected time for the 20 millionth puzzle being solved was 04:26:41 on 4th February 2020. This is very close to the cut off point between beaker and mikas.

As before, this is a straight linear extrapolation and does not allow for any trends that might be emerging. If I think of it, I'll post a further update based on puzzles solved by midnight next Sunday.
Author:  paulv66  [ Mon Nov 25, 2019 1:27 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis
paulv66 wrote:
At midnight last night, the projected time for the 20 millionth puzzle being solved was 04:26:41 on 4th February 2020. This is very close to the cut off point between beaker and mikas.

As before, this is a straight linear extrapolation and does not allow for any trends that might be emerging. If I think of it, I'll post a further update based on puzzles solved by midnight next Sunday.


At midnight last night the projected time has moved forward by around 18 hours to 10:13:02 on 03/02/2020.
Author:  pnm  [ Mon Nov 25, 2019 9:45 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis
paulv66 wrote:
At midnight last night the projected time has moved forward by around 18 hours to 10:13:02 on 03/02/2020.


For cosmic balance it kinda has to happen on 2/2/2020 ..

[namaste]
Author:  paulv66  [ Mon Nov 25, 2019 10:53 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis
pnm wrote:
paulv66 wrote:
At midnight last night the projected time has moved forward by around 18 hours to 10:13:02 on 03/02/2020.


For cosmic balance it kinda has to happen on 2/2/2020 ..

[namaste]


Presumably at 02:02:02 on 02/02/2020?
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