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 Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis 
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Posted on: Tue Jan 21, 2020 4:07 pm




Posts: 2686
Joined: Thu May 12, 2011 11:58 pm
Post Re: Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis
clm wrote:
Why not inserting some advertisement in different places (New York Times :-), specialized puzzle magazines ... )?


I wonder what the rates are for the New York Times... [scared]

clm wrote:
In the other hand, and considering that for this year the 20 x 20 puzzle is the decided "gift" for the event, my particular impression is that 20 points looks like small prize


Sure, but it kinda has to be 20 points though..


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Posted on: Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:06 pm




Posts: 652
Location: Dublin, Ireland
Joined: Tue Mar 01, 2016 10:03 pm
Post Re: Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis
pnm wrote:
Sure, but it kinda has to be 20 points though..


Unless you decide to make it worth 2020 points! :-)


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Posted on: Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:42 pm




Posts: 652
Location: Dublin, Ireland
Joined: Tue Mar 01, 2016 10:03 pm
Post Re: Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis
pnm wrote:
Do people have any good ideas about how to promote the "20 million puzzles solved" event when it happens ?? [woot] [woot]


There's a website called Quora for which I somehow ended up on the mailing list. It has a number of interest groups, including a maths related one. I expect that some of their members might be interested in doing numbers related puzzles. Patrick, I'm happy to post something there when the 20 million mark is reached.

Please let me know if you'd like me to do this. (Or I could post now, saying that it's closing in on the 20 million mark and maybe one of them could be the person who ends up solving the 20 millionth puzzle?)


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Posted on: Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:20 pm




Posts: 2686
Joined: Thu May 12, 2011 11:58 pm
Post Re: Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis
paulv66 wrote:
Please let me know if you'd like me to do this. (Or I could post now, saying that it's closing in on the 20 million mark and maybe one of them could be the person who ends up solving the 20 millionth puzzle?)


Yes, posting now would be cool, thanks [thumbup]


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Posted on: Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:11 pm




Posts: 652
Location: Dublin, Ireland
Joined: Tue Mar 01, 2016 10:03 pm
Post Re: Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis
pnm wrote:
paulv66 wrote:
Please let me know if you'd like me to do this. (Or I could post now, saying that it's closing in on the 20 million mark and maybe one of them could be the person who ends up solving the 20 millionth puzzle?)


Yes, posting now would be cool, thanks [thumbup]


I went on the website and couldn't figure out how to post a new discussion thread. So I added the following post to a thread called "What kind of puzzles do you like?"

I enjoy number based puzzles. I discovered sudoku when it first started being published in the newspaper and about 4 years ago, I chanced upon Killer Sudoku.

This seemed a lot more interesting than basic sudoku and I started looking for it online. I then discovered that there is a whole range of different number based grid type puzzles, known as kenken or calcudoku that use various mathematical operators.

I joined a website called http://www.calcudoku.org and started doing some of their daily puzzles. I soon became hooked and started doing the puzzles every day and eventually became a subscriber, which gave me access to additional puzzles.

The website has around 1,000 regular participants spread all over the world and is now coming up to the 20,000,000th solved puzzle.

If you enjoy doing this type of puzzle, or would just like a new challenge, it’s free to join. And who knows, you might end up being the participant who solves the 20,000,000th puzzle!


Be interesting to see if this results in any new members.


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Posted on: Tue Jan 28, 2020 1:17 am




Posts: 652
Location: Dublin, Ireland
Joined: Tue Mar 01, 2016 10:03 pm
Post Re: Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis
I didn't get a chance to do an update last night, so I've done it tonight instead. Barring something very unexpected, it seems almost certain that the 20 million is going to be reached on 4 February 2020. Updated weekly progression is as follows:

04:26:41 on 04/02/2020

10:13:02 on 03/02/2020

00:15:46 on 04/02/2020

05:26:55 on 04/02/2020

21:41:30 on 03/02/2020

00:37:33 on 04/02/2020

12:50:06 on 04/02/2020

19:30:08 on 04/02/2020

13:12:02 on 04/02/2020

12:14:35 on 04/02/2020

If it is on the 4th, the winner of the closest guess will be as follows:

beaker before 04:22:21
mikas between 04:22:21 and 16:52:33
eclipsegirl after 16:52:33


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Posted on: Wed Jan 29, 2020 12:35 am




Posts: 652
Location: Dublin, Ireland
Joined: Tue Mar 01, 2016 10:03 pm
Post Re: Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis
The puzzle count appears to have disappeared. Is that a deliberate ploy to increase the suspense in the build up to the 20,000,000th puzzle?


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Posted on: Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:58 am




Posts: 2686
Joined: Thu May 12, 2011 11:58 pm
Post Re: Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis
paulv66 wrote:
The puzzle count appears to have disappeared. Is that a deliberate ploy to increase the suspense in the build up to the 20,000,000th puzzle?


No, for some reason the SSL certificates for calcudoku.org were renewed (a few weeks ago),
but not for www.calcudoku.org [confused]

fixed now..


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Posted on: Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:38 pm




Posts: 11
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:46 am
Post Re: Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis
Hello,
I am an actuary and used more sofisticated algorithm than simple linear extrapolation. In the midle of January numbers of solved puzzles were less than I predict and cumulative difference
exceeded 3000. That shifted 20`000`000 point to the afternoon of 04 February and chance to come into eclipse area increased.
My forecast that 20`000`000 puzzles will be solve at 2020-02-04 13:37 acording to process

Date Total Solved
2020-01-31 00:00 19 963 390 7 720
2020-02-01 00:00 19 971 110 7 810
2020-02-02 00:00 19 978 920 7 840
2020-02-03 00:00 19 986 760 8 270
2020-02-04 00:00 19 995 030 9 620
2020-02-05 00:00 20 004 650
3 200
2020-02-04 08:00 19 998 230 430
2020-02-04 09:00 19 998 660 370
2020-02-04 10:00 19 999 030 320
2020-02-04 11:00 19 999 350 310
2020-02-04 12:00 19 999 660 270
2020-02-04 13:00 19 999 930 270
2020-02-05 14:00 20 000 200

2020-02-04 13:37 20 000 000

It is pity that tonight I go to Africa and travel sometimes without internet. It would be grateful if anyone could provide real numbers in forum.

Thanks in advance,

mikas


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Posted on: Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:58 pm




Posts: 11
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:46 am
Post Re: Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis
Sorry, table was compressed.
I repeat it with separators between columns.

Date___________ __Total ______ __Solved
2020-01-31 00:00 __19 963 390 __7 720
2020-02-01 00:00 __19 971 110 __7 810
2020-02-02 00:00 __19 978 920 __7 840
2020-02-03 00:00 __19 986 760 __8 270
2020-02-04 00:00 __19 995 030 __9 620
2020-02-05 00:00 __20 004 650
________________________3 200
2020-02-04 08:00 __19 998 230 __430
2020-02-04 09:00 __19 998 660 __370
2020-02-04 10:00 __19 999 030 __320
2020-02-04 11:00 __19 999 350 __310
2020-02-04 12:00 __19 999 660 __270
2020-02-04 13:00 __19 999 930 __270
2020-02-05 14:00 __20 000 200
2020-02-04 13:37 __20 000 000

mikas


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