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 Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis 
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Posted on: Fri Jan 31, 2020 12:14 pm




Posts: 652
Location: Dublin, Ireland
Joined: Tue Mar 01, 2016 10:03 pm
Post Re: Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis
Hi Mikas

I hope you enjoy your trip to Africa. I agree that linear extrapolation is fairly unsophisticated, but I felt that the amount of data and the limited timeframe over which I had this data wasn’t sufficient to warrant using a more complex approach.

I noticed a pattern of variation within each week, with Saturday generally having the fewest puzzles solved and Monday having the highest number. So I tried to provide updates on the same day each week in order to avoid distortions caused by the regular pattern of variations throughout the week.

Other than that, I agree that my approach was fairly simplistic, but it looks as if it is likely to provide a reasonably accurate estimate of when the 20,000,000th puzzle will be solved. Although, as I said in one of my earlier posts in this thread, I know my projection is going to be wrong, it’s just a question of by how much. As an actuary, I’m sure you will appreciate the appropriateness of that comment.


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Posted on: Mon Feb 03, 2020 1:07 am




Posts: 652
Location: Dublin, Ireland
Joined: Tue Mar 01, 2016 10:03 pm
Post Re: Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis
Final update. Definitely going to be Tuesday, February 4th at this stage and the only remaining issue is whether mikas or eclipsegirl will be closest to the correct time.

Current projected time is 16:26:34 on 04/02/2020

If it's before 16:52:33, it will be mikas, after that time, it will be eclipsegirl.


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Posted on: Mon Feb 03, 2020 9:43 am




Posts: 2686
Joined: Thu May 12, 2011 11:58 pm
Post Re: Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis
paulv66 wrote:
If it's before 16:52:33, it will be mikas, after that time, it will be eclipsegirl.


mikas is probably running a media blitz as we speak [tongue]


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Posted on: Mon Feb 03, 2020 10:14 am




Posts: 728
Location: Ladysmith, BC, Canada
Joined: Fri May 13, 2011 1:37 am
Post Re: Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis
[biggrin]


Last edited by beaker on Mon Feb 03, 2020 10:15 pm, edited 2 times in total.



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Posted on: Mon Feb 03, 2020 1:38 pm




Posts: 652
Location: Dublin, Ireland
Joined: Tue Mar 01, 2016 10:03 pm
Post Re: Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis
pnm wrote:
paulv66 wrote:
If it's before 16:52:33, it will be mikas, after that time, it will be eclipsegirl.


mikas is probably running a media blitz as we speak [tongue]


Looks like mikas is going to be closest, alright. Almost 6,000 puzzles done so far today and projected time is heading towards midday tomorrow.


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Posted on: Mon Feb 03, 2020 10:12 pm




Posts: 728
Location: Ladysmith, BC, Canada
Joined: Fri May 13, 2011 1:37 am
Post Re: Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis
A BIG SHOUT OUT TO NORTH AND SOUTH AMERICAN CALCUDOKU PUZZLERS......IF WE WERE TO SUBMIT ALL 13 OF THE TIMED PUZZLES PLUS THE NORMAL PUZZLES FOR TODAY AND NEXT DAY PUZZLES BEFORE 7:00 PM TODAY, THEN ONE OF US WOULD PROBABLY SOLVE THE 20,000,000 PUZZLE AS THE EUROPEANS WOULD BE ASLEEP.......HOW ABOUT GIVING IT A TRY [thumbsup]


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Posted on: Mon Feb 03, 2020 11:42 pm




Posts: 454
Joined: Wed Apr 16, 2014 9:20 pm
Post Re: Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis
Beaker, I though we were friends [scared] [love]

I was thinking of waiting to do tomorrows puzzles until after 16:00 GMT so I could win.

At this point, there are less than 5000 puzzles needed to break 20 mil.


Last edited by eclipsegirl on Tue Feb 04, 2020 12:01 am, edited 1 time in total.



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Posted on: Tue Feb 04, 2020 12:00 am




Posts: 728
Location: Ladysmith, BC, Canada
Joined: Fri May 13, 2011 1:37 am
Post Re: Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis
But the Europeans are predicting mikas as the winner, so I thought we could upset the apple cart so to speak and ursurp their predictions......that way a user on this side of the Atlantic would have a better chance of being the 20,000,000 puzzle solver......it could even be you.....plus we would be awake to see it happen while most of Europe would be asleep and miss it [thumbsup].......I plan to have solved 28 (including all the timed puzzles) by 7:00PM this evening and am hoping the rest of the puzzlers of the Americas (South and North) will do the same.......and in doing so, one of them will quite likely be the 20 mil puzzle solver......way cool and [sneaky] [thumbsup]


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Posted on: Tue Feb 04, 2020 12:30 am




Posts: 454
Joined: Wed Apr 16, 2014 9:20 pm
Post Re: Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis
Because Beaker is my friend, and I do not care who wins:

I encourage all of the North and South American participants to do as many puzzles as possible as evening.
Maybe we can push the countdown forward. I know Beaker is going to be watching the counter this evening.


Lets just go wild with puzzles tonight. [thumbsup]


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Posted on: Tue Feb 04, 2020 1:50 am




Posts: 652
Location: Dublin, Ireland
Joined: Tue Mar 01, 2016 10:03 pm
Post Re: Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis
We’re still around 3,900 short of the 20 million mark, so probably no chance of getting there before 4:22 CET. But maybe Patrick could shut down the website for a few hours to keep the suspense going between mikas and eclipsegirl? [drool] [scared] [woot]


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