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 Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis 
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Posted on: Sun Nov 10, 2019 5:55 pm




Posts: 567
Location: Dublin, Ireland
Joined: Tue Mar 01, 2016 10:03 pm
Post Re: Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis
I've done a straight linear extrapolation based on skeeter84's starting point and the number of solved puzzles at 16:42 CET today. The projected answer is 4th February at 07:49:27.

That's pretty close to the times guessed by beaker and mikas. My later guess of February 6th is based on the assumption that there will be a fall off in the number of people doing puzzles over the Christmas period.


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Posted on: Sun Nov 10, 2019 7:23 pm




Posts: 675
Location: Ladysmith, BC, Canada
Joined: Fri May 13, 2011 1:37 am
Post Re: Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis
I thought of that, but on the other hand many people are on holidays and hence have more time "on their hands" and hence will be more relaxed and possibly do more puzzles (for example instead of doing one each of the timed puzzles, one might try to get a better time by doing all 13 of them).........and, for me, no calculations were made except for when I might reach 200,000 points ( which was Feb 4)......(also, there are a number of piuzzles who are going to attain 200,000 points near that day)it would be great if I or 1 of the before mentioned group could achieve that the same time the site attained the 20, 000,000th puzzle [biggrin]


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Posted on: Sun Nov 10, 2019 7:33 pm




Posts: 567
Location: Dublin, Ireland
Joined: Tue Mar 01, 2016 10:03 pm
Post Re: Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis
beaker wrote:
I thought of that, but on the other hand many people are on holidays and hence have more time "on their hands" and hence will be more relaxed and possibly do more puzzles (for example instead of doing one each of the timed puzzles, one might try to get a better time by doing all 13 of them).........and, for me, no calculations were made except for when I might reach 200,000 points ( which was Feb 4)......(also, there are a number of piuzzles who are going to attain 200,000 points near that day)it would be great if I or 1 of the before mentioned group could achieve that the same time the site attained the 20, 000,000th puzzle [biggrin]


I thought about whether people would use their extra time off to do more puzzles. And some probably will. But my guess is that it will be outweighed by those who are too busy partying to do much puzzling.

Well done on getting so close to 200,000 points. I'm still short of half that number. As you get closer to the target, you could hold back some of the extra puzzles (maybe solve them to within one cell?) if you feel you are going to get there slightly ahead of the 20 million mark being reached.


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Posted on: Sun Nov 10, 2019 11:05 pm




Posts: 2601
Joined: Thu May 12, 2011 11:58 pm
Post Re: Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis
[scared] [scared] [scared]

COMPETITION CLOSED FOR ENTRIES

[scared] [scared] [scared]

Further guesses are fine, but will no longer vie for a prize.

(I'm thinking a free puzzle book, depending on who wins it of course)
(in case someone has all the books already :-) )


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Posted on: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:12 am




Posts: 675
Location: Ladysmith, BC, Canada
Joined: Fri May 13, 2011 1:37 am
Post Re: Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis
Am surprised that there were not more entries......I mean it is just a fun distraction from the puzzle thinking and I would think people would just throw in any time just for the "heck of it" [biggrin]
It would be funny if someone did enter now and got the right time [lol]


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Posted on: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:14 am




Posts: 567
Location: Dublin, Ireland
Joined: Tue Mar 01, 2016 10:03 pm
Post Re: Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis
Here's a list of people's guesses in date/time order.

rafaelhoukes 31/01/2020 13:31:13
sjs34 01/02/2020 01:02:10
jpoos 02/02/2020 02:02:20
clm 03/02/2020 01:00:00
beaker 04/02/2020 04:04:40
mikas 04/02/2020 04:40:02
eclipsegirl 05/02/2020 05:05:05
paulv66 06/02/2020 12:34:56
mukund 04/03/2020 19:37:55


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Posted on: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:50 am




Posts: 567
Location: Dublin, Ireland
Joined: Tue Mar 01, 2016 10:03 pm
Post Re: Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis
It's been pointed out to me (thanks beaker) that I omitted the originator of this thread from my list of guesses/predictions. Revised list is as follows:

rafaelhoukes 31/01/2020 13:31:13
sjs34 01/02/2020 01:02:10
jpoos 02/02/2020 02:02:20
clm 03/02/2020 01:00:00
beaker 04/02/2020 04:04:40
mikas 04/02/2020 04:40:02
eclipsegirl 05/02/2020 05:05:05
skeeter84 06/02/2020 02:18:37
paulv66 06/02/2020 12:34:56
mukund 04/03/2020 19:37:55


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Posted on: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:22 pm




Posts: 2601
Joined: Thu May 12, 2011 11:58 pm
Post Re: Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis
I just realized someone could have gamed the system by picking an early date (say mid January)
and then heavily promote the site [scared]


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Posted on: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:28 pm




Posts: 567
Location: Dublin, Ireland
Joined: Tue Mar 01, 2016 10:03 pm
Post Re: Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis
pnm wrote:
I just realized someone could have gamed the system by picking an early date (say mid January)
and then heavily promote the site [scared]


True! But it would be a lot worse if someone decided to pick a late date and then launched a series of DDOS attacks!


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Posted on: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:55 pm




Posts: 2601
Joined: Thu May 12, 2011 11:58 pm
Post Re: Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis
paulv66 wrote:
True! But it would be a lot worse if someone decided to pick a late date and then launched a series of DDOS attacks!


So promotion and DDOS are the competing goals of rafaelhoukes and mukund ... [unsure]


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