Re: Calcudoku.org 20 Million Solved Puzzles Analysis
Hey guys, I've decided to do another experiment to see when puzzle 20 million may arrive. I took 3 weeks of data this time around using the same method as in my previous 10 day experiment. Without further ado, I present my data.
I apologize in advance if these images are too small. Anyhow, I also did some rough estimates of when we'll reach 500K and 250K puzzles left to go. As of 12/1/2019 at 18:00:00 US EDT, there were 19,468,300 puzzles solved according to the ticker on the main puzzle page. Because we're headed towards 20 million, there were 531,700 puzzles left to solve at that given point in time.
500K left to go predictions:
US EDT: Thursday, December 5th 2019, between 9:46:05 and 12:59:02
CET: Thursday, December 5th 2019, between 15:46:05 and 18:59:02
250K left to go predictions:
US EDT: anytime from Friday, January 3rd, 2020 at 5:54:14 to Saturday, January 4th, 2020 at 10:36:29
CET: anytime from Friday, January 3rd, 2020 at 11:54:14 to Saturday, January 4th, 2020 at 16:36:29
What we all want to know, of course, is when we'll have
zeropuzzles left to go. Here are my new estimates:
US EDT: Monday, January 27th, 2020 at 3:37:26 to Monday, February 3rd, 2020 at 13:22:05
CET: Monday, January 27th, 2020 at 5:08:10 to Monday, February 3rd, 2020 at 19:22:05
My predictions are only that - predictions. I may very well be in the ballpark or very much away from it when everything is said and done. As expected, there was a solid 1,500 to 2,500 dip in the number of puzzles typically solved per day on Thanksgiving. First off, I'm sure there were tons of people eating, drinking, and partying due to it being a holiday. Secondly, the next day is Black Friday, on which tons of people go shopping (besides maybe recover from hangovers and indigestion). Anyhow, I hope everybody had a happy holiday and take care.
skeeter84